Britain Nearing End of Natural Gas Self Sufficiency

With Britain reliant on diminishing natural gas supplies and renewable energy sources only expected to shoulder a small percentage of the energy demand, an energy crisis is imminent,

The future of Britain’s natural gas supplies and estimated contribution of renewable energy as Britain closes down coal and nuclear plants is a topic worthy of extensive discussion. The UK is currently facing uncertainty about its future energy supplies with the possibility of a potentially grave energy crisis and the potential danger should not be underestimated.

More than a third of the country’s aging base load coal-fired and nuclear generating capacity is set to be decommissioned in the next fifteen to twenty years. Up till now, the government has claimed that this will be replaced with natural gas and renewable energy, plus imports of electricity from France, depending on the market. The government has now changed its tune and opted for nuclear power. With a discredited prime minister on his way out and bitter infighting about the succession paralysing decision making, who knows what will happen?

Although Britain is apparently to be dependent on natural gas, it is reaching the end of self-sufficiency in gas and is now a net importer. The industry is investing heavily in new pipelines to import gas from Norway and the Netherlands in addition to Russian piped gas, with new storage facilities for piped gas, and LNG terminals being built.

In renewable energy, hydropower contributes less than 5% of generating capacity in Britain and the principal renewable energy will be wind power. But wind cannot provide base load power because it is intermittent and its capacity credit will be small, at penetration currently being proposed, perhaps 2,000-3,000 MW out of the 30,000 MW which will be required to keep the nation’s lights on.

Gas prices are spiralling. The largest exporter, Russia, owns a quarter of the world’s gas. Russia is flexing its muscles ominously and is talking of a gas version of OPEC. How costly and how secure gas will be are looming questions.

Solar Thermal Power shows great potential

Solar Thermal Power (STP) or Solar Concentrator Power (SCP) is a relatively new technology and offers great potential to the sunniest countries of the world in a similar fashion to that being harvested by European nations through wind farming.

Solar thermal power uses direct sunlight and the heat it generates is used to heat water, to raise the ambient temperature in buildings or to create steam which is used to power electricity generators.

The most promising regions of the world to exploit this new concept are the South-Western United States, Africa, the Middle East, the Mediterranean countries of Europe, Iran, Pakistan and the desert regions of India, the former Soviet Union, China and Australia.

Until fairly recently, the solar thermal industry has used low-tech technology and been largely concerned with domestic and building applications for heating space and water and for cooking.

However, the solar thermal industry has recently taken a more sophisticated approach and progressed to more high-tech applications involving relatively large electricity generation projects in a number of countries.

Producing electricity from the energy in the sun’s rays is a fairly straightforward process. Direct solar radiation can be concentrated and collected by a range of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies to provide medium to high temperature heat. The heat is then used to operate a conventional power cycle such as through a gas or steam turbine.

One of the major benefits of this form of energy generation is that it is one of the most benign methods of power generation around. It is silent, uses no fuel other than sunlight and there are no harmful emissions.

Transmission and Distribution Challenges in the UK

I speak at a number of industry events during the year and they are always an interesting meeting place for people from different parts of the energy sector and I find that in general they are a good forum for exchanging views.

I recently spoke at the Transmission and Distribution Challenges in the UK conference organised by Wilmington in Glasgow. Transmission and distribution is such an important issue, that conferences such as these present a useful way for industry members to get together and discuss the issues that are driving the sector.

In recent years many developments have remoulded the electrical supply industry, some more prominent than others. Among others, one of the items I discussed was the recent expansions of international transmission systems. These developments not only offer major business opportunities but they are increasing the efficiency and reducing the costs of electricity delivery. The infrastructure is being created to transport power over long distances from countries far away, providing levels of reliable electricity supply where they did not exist before. The total lengths of electricity transmission and distribution lines in the world are forecast to rise from 63.2 million km in 2005 to 68.3 km in 2010. Most of this is distribution but a vital small component is for transmission and an even smaller share for international connections.

The transmission and distribution market has been through a series of realignments, consisting of mergers and closures, in recent years, a process which is not yet finished. In the core market with high technology value added, three companies dominate; ABB, Siemens and Areva. Each company has experienced difficulties and undergone restructuring.

In the past, the definitions used in the transmission and distribution market have consisted of six product-based categories; power and distribution transformers, switchgear, HV insulated cables, OH bare lines, insulators and fittings and EHV towers. These categories are now changing and at the same time, while technology is expanding the horizons of transmission and distribution operation, the traditional purely “product” segments such as wires and cable remain vital to the transmission and distribution networks, which could not exist without them. Some leading industry players are competing in the more restricted high tech sectors of the market, others in specific product segments and others in both.

To read more about the challenges facing the UK Transmission and Distribution sector please download the presentation.

Wind Power - are industry critics quoting facts or tilting at windmills?

Despite rapid growth in this renewable energy resource, new evidence from operators shows that the benefits claimed for wind power are not always what they seem.

It has been an eventful year in this sector of the renewable energy industry and while generating capacity is up, solid new evidence suggests that some of the costs of producing electricity using the breeze sometimes mean that wind generation is not always unambiguously good. So are industry critics quoting facts or tilting at windmills?

Capacity in this type of renewable energy increased by 11.3 GW in 2005 to reach a total of 59 GW. Germany is the world leader, with 31% of the world’s installed capacity, followed by Spain, the USA, India and Denmark.

The big surprise among the five leaders was the recovery and surge in wind power production in the USA after years of stagnation. Guaranteed wind power production tax credits, valid for a three year period instead of annually as before have justified the new investment in renewable energy.

Growth is expected to continue. As the leaders consolidate and re-power smaller installations with larger turbines, the wind power market is now widening and entering a new phase with many new countries entering the market for renewable energy resources, such as wind.

Studies have given rise to critical concerns challenging some of the claims made for wind power. Badly needed evidence is now available after three years of large scale operation of wind turbines in five countries. In one such country, Ireland, the government placed a moratorium on wind power development, although this has been rescinded.

These studies are the first real evidence showing how wind actually works, as opposed to what has been claimed, and come from some of the most authoritative voices on energy in the world. Reports from E.On Netz, the system operator with the largest wind power feed-in in the world, and Eltra of Denmark, which had the largest percentage wind power contribution, show disturbing results.

E.On cites a study from the Deutsche-Energie Agentur. The report was sponsored by the German government and all sides of the industry. Among bombshells contained inside, the study suggests that while wind power capacity will reach 48 GW by 2020 in Germany, the source is so intermittent and unreliable that it is equivalent to only 2 GW of stable fossil fuel capacity.

The evidence also shows a mismatch of supply and demand. High pressure weather systems bring cold winters and hot summers which unfortunately coincide with low wind levels. These meteorological realities mean that wind makes its maximum contribution when demand is lowest and its minimum contribution when demand is highest. In 2004, wind accounted for 20 percent of total electricity production in Denmark but supplied only 6 percent of consumption, because it produced a surplus at periods of lowest demand. What's more, 84 percent of Danish wind-generated electricity was exported to Norway, and sold at a loss for Denmark. Furthermore, the Norwegian electricity system uses carbon free hydro power, so the effect of carbon reductions realised in power produced by windmills was nullified.

Also, because of this variability in wind, back-up fossil fuel plants must be operated at low load to maintain system reliability. There is new evidence that shows that switching base load fossil fuel plants on and off to balance a system produces higher carbon emissions than continuous operation, certainly not a supposed benefit from switching to renewable energy sources.

Because wind installations tend to be concentrated in areas with high wind speeds, regional grids are heavily overloaded at times of maximum feed-in. Each country studied reported extreme difficulties in balancing the grid. A further 2,700 km of costly high voltage transmission lines will be required in Germany to accommodate new wind capacity.

It is clear that wind-generated electricity can only work as part of a generation portfolio. The US Department of Energy advocates small local targets within states, most recently proposing targets of 100 MW in each of the 30 states, rather than the huge wind parks favoured in Europe.

I am not relegating wind power to the dustbin, but I do believe that this evidence goes to show how essential proper analysis is needed to establish what renewable energy can and cannot deliver and how it must be accommodated within a total electricity generation system